WTI crude oil: Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Shares are derived: EIA STEO Oct 2026 Table 3d crude oil production 2025 (US 13.66, Saudi 9.33, Russia 9.12 mb/d) divided by world 79.00 mb/d. This crude-only table differs from EIA article figures (Saudi 9.6, Russia 9.9 mb/d in other definitions). Source: eia.gov.

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

• Supply disruption in the Middle East: crude shut-ins around the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.8 million b/d in September 2026 (peak 10.9 million b/d in May), and attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline cut a bypass route. (eia.gov)
• Global inventories: EIA estimates world oil stocks fell 1.9 million b/d in 3Q26 and expects a further 0.7 million b/d draw in 4Q26; depleted stocks are expected to rebuild through 2027. (eia.gov)
• Shipping and risk costs: record tanker rates and higher insurance and longer routes add to delivered crude prices. (eia.gov)
• Demand and economy: EIA projects global liquids consumption falling from 104.4 million b/d (2025) to 102.4 (2026), then rising to 104.6 (2027); tight diesel markets also pull on crude demand. (eia.gov)

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of WTI crude oil changed by +8.2%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -49.9%, from May 2022 to Dec 2025 (43 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 21.1% below its highest month-end (May 2022).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 49 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. WTI crude oil ranks 7 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was deeper than the median.

A second, independent series (US EIA spot price, WTI Cushing (via FRED); month-end) gives a deepest fall of -49.9%, a gap of 0.0 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Futures roll. USO's prospectus says that when near-month futures trade above later months (backwardation) the benchmark tends to rise as expiry nears, and when near-month trade below later months (contango) it tends to fall; it warns a prolonged contango could significantly hurt NAV and total return. (sec.gov)

A futures-based oil fund holds expiring contracts rather than barrels, so its return can differ widely from the spot WTI price, and in 2020 WTI futures showed that front-month prices can behave unusually near expiry.

• OPEC spare capacity (EIA STEO chart has no readable figure; no figure from a primary page)
• Shale breakeven price (no primary page opened)
• US crude stocks vs five-year average for 2026-10-02 (EIA page opened gave only the level)
• CME CL contract-spec page itself returned no spec table; figures come from the CME rulebook chapter 200 (size, tick, months) - tick dollar value is derived
• Exact listed-months schedule for CL (rulebook only says all calendar months; exchange sets how many are open)

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.