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Commodities / Soybeans (CBOT)

Soybeans (CBOT): Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Oil and meal. The contract it trades on, who produces it, the figures its price is set against, how to get exposure, and how far its price fell from its highs in five years.

Verified figures, not advice. Contract terms, production, stocks and fund costs come from the exchange, government agencies and fund issuers named beside each figure, read on 14 Oct 2026. A figure we could not verify is shown as "not verified"; a figure we worked out ourselves is marked "computed". We do not say where a price is going or whether to buy. Commodity funds and futures can lose more than you expect. Found a mistake? Tell us and we correct it.

Step 1. The contract

TermValue
Exchange
CBOT (CME Group)
Contract
Soybean Futures
Ticker
ZS (Globex)
Size
5,000 bushels
Smallest price move
1/4 cent per bushel = $12.50 per contract
Delivery months
Sep, Nov, Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug; physical delivery
Benchmark grade
No. 2 Yellow soybeans at par; No. 1 Yellow at +6 cents/bu; No. 3 Yellow at -6 cents/bu

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Step 2. Who produces it

ProducerShare of world outputYear or season
Brazil
42.0%
2025/26 (180.00 of 428.18 Mt; computed; USDA WAP March 2026)
United States
27.1%
2025/26 (115.99 Mt; computed; USDA WAP March 2026)
Argentina
not verified
2025/26 (source inconsistent: table 48.50 Mt, text 48.0 Mt; later USDA reports raise it to 50.0 Mt)

Source: fas.usda.gov.

Step 3. The figures the price is set against

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

What it measuresFigureAs ofSource
US soybean stocks-to-use, 2026/27 (computed: ending stocks 315 mil bu / total use 4,587 mil bu)
6.9% percent
USDA WASDE 9 Oct 2026 (2025/26 est.: 315/4,293 = 7.3%, computed)
usda.gov
US soybean season-average farm price, 2026/27 projection (2025/26 est. $10.50)
12.00 USD per bushel
USDA WASDE 9 Oct 2026
usda.gov
USDA ERS soybean total costs listed (US, per planted acre; yield 58 bu per planted acre). ERS file has no per-bushel row.
660.62 (operating 250.88) USD per planted acre
2025 crop year (ERS Commodity Costs and Returns, page updated 2026-10-01)
ers.usda.gov

Step 4. What moves the price

  • US crop: USDA projects 2026/27 US production of 4,562 mil bu (4,261 in 2025/26), raised on higher yields in the October report. (usda.gov)
  • World supply: global production is projected at 442.7 Mt for 2026/27 and ending stocks at 124.3 Mt; Brazil alone is about 42% of 2025/26 output (computed). (usda.gov)
  • Tight US balance: projected US ending stocks of 315 mil bu are only about 6.9% of use (computed), so small yield or demand changes move prices. (usda.gov)
  • Export demand: US soybean exports were $16.46 billion in 2025, with China the largest market by value ($3.08 billion). (fas.usda.gov)

Step 5. How far the price has fallen from its own highs

+4.6%Change, 5 years
-43.7%Deepest fall
not yetMonths to recover
-24.3%Now vs highest month-end

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Soybeans (CBOT) changed by +4.6%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -43.7%, from Apr 2022 to Jul 2025 (39 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 24.3% below its highest month-end (Apr 2022).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 40 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Soybeans (CBOT) ranks 9 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was shallower than the median.

A second, independent series (IMF soybean price, monthly average to Jul 2026 (via FRED); monthly average, to Jul 2026) gives a deepest fall of -41.8%, a gap of 0.0 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Step 6. How to get exposure

ProductStructureAnnual costSource
Teucrium Soybean Fund
SOYB, Teucrium Trading, LLC
Futures-based commodity pool (CBOT soybean futures, 35/30/35 weighting across three contracts)
0.63%
Net after sponsor fee waiver; gross 3.61%; management fee 1.00%; prospectus date 30 Apr 2026
teucrium.com
WisdomTree Soybeans
SOYB (LSE), WisdomTree Commodity Securities Limited
Exchange Traded Commodity, synthetic fully funded collateralised swap (debt security)
0.49%
wisdomtree.com

Futures roll. Teucrium's own SOYB factsheet says the fund invests mainly in soybean futures and does not track the spot price; its sister corn prospectus explains that contango makes rolling costly (sell cheaper, buy dearer contracts) and backwardation can help. (teucrium.com)

Soybean prices are sensitive to US-China trade policy and to the Brazil and US harvests, and futures-based funds can lag spot prices through roll costs.

What we could not verify

  • Argentina production share and a clean third-ranked producer figure (March 2026 WAP table 48.50 vs text 48.0; world total not updated); producer data is the March 2026 report, not the latest
  • USDA-published stocks-to-use (not stated for soybeans in WASDE; 6.9% is computed)
  • ERS total cost per bushel (not published as a row)
  • Soybean contract page on cmegroup.com is JS-rendered; rulebook used instead

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Sources

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.

All sources for this page (8)

Questions people ask

What moves the price of Soybeans (CBOT)?

US crop: USDA projects 2026/27 US production of 4,562 mil bu (4,261 in 2025/26), raised on higher yields in the October report.

How can I get exposure to Soybeans (CBOT)?

Through futures on CBOT (CME Group), or through funds and exchange-traded products. Step 6 lists the ones we verified, with structure and cost. Funds that hold futures can differ from the spot price.

Why can a fund differ from the price I see?

A fund that holds futures must sell contracts about to expire and buy later ones. When the later ones cost more (contango) each roll can cost money; when they cost less it can add. So its return is not the spot price.