Brent crude oil: Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Source: ice.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

World crude producers (Brent is a global benchmark, not a country share). Shares are derived: EIA STEO Oct 2026 Table 3d crude oil production 2025 (US 13.66, Saudi 9.33, Russia 9.12 mb/d) divided by world 79.00 mb/d. This crude-only table differs from EIA article figures (Saudi 9.6, Russia 9.9 mb/d in other definitions). Source: eia.gov.

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

• Supply disruption in the Middle East: crude shut-ins around the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.8 million b/d in September 2026 (peak 10.9 million b/d in May), and attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline cut a bypass route. (eia.gov)
• Global inventories: EIA estimates world oil stocks fell 1.9 million b/d in 3Q26 and expects a further 0.7 million b/d draw in 4Q26; depleted stocks are expected to rebuild through 2027. (eia.gov)
• Shipping and risk costs: record tanker rates and higher insurance and longer routes add to delivered crude prices. (eia.gov)
• Demand and economy: EIA projects global liquids consumption falling from 104.4 million b/d (2025) to 102.4 (2026), then rising to 104.6 (2027); tight diesel markets also pull on crude demand. (eia.gov)

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Brent crude oil changed by +22.7%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -50.5%, from May 2022 to Dec 2025 (43 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 15.7% below its highest month-end (May 2022).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 47 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Brent crude oil ranks 6 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was deeper than the median.

A second, independent series (US EIA spot price, Brent Europe (via FRED); month-end) gives a deepest fall of -51.1%, a gap of 0.6 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Futures roll. WisdomTree says that in contango the contracts bought can cost more than the ones sold, causing an extra loss for futures-based investors, and in backwardation the reverse gives an extra gain; this roll yield is built into the index. (wisdomtree.com)

Brent futures are priced against a basket of North Sea grades (ICE Brent Index) and mainly settle by EFP or cash, so the screen price is a financial benchmark that can diverge from the price of a physical cargo.

• OPEC spare capacity (no figure from a primary page)
• Shale breakeven price (no primary page opened)
• ICE Brent contract months: the ICE page gave inconsistent text across two reads (96 vs 132 consecutive months); left as a series description
• ICE tick value is derived (page does not state $10)
• ICE page itself does not list grades; grade list taken from ice.com/brent-crude page

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.