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Commodities / Silver

Silver: Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Money metal with large industrial use. The contract it trades on, who produces it, the figures its price is set against, how to get exposure, and how far its price fell from its highs in five years.

Verified figures, not advice. Contract terms, production, stocks and fund costs come from the exchange, government agencies and fund issuers named beside each figure, read on 14 Oct 2026. A figure we could not verify is shown as "not verified"; a figure we worked out ourselves is marked "computed". We do not say where a price is going or whether to buy. Commodity funds and futures can lose more than you expect. Found a mistake? Tell us and we correct it.

Step 1. The contract

TermValue
Exchange
CME Group (COMEX)
Contract
Silver Futures
Ticker
SI
Size
5,000 troy ounces (10% tolerance)
Smallest price move
$0.005 per troy ounce outright (= $25 per contract, derived)
Delivery months
Months open set by the Exchange (not specified in rulebook); physical delivery over the delivery month
Benchmark grade
Silver of minimum 999 fineness in 1,000-oz bars (five bars per contract)

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Step 2. Who produces it

ProducerShare of world outputYear or season
Mexico
24.2%
2025
Peru
13.8%
2025
China
13.1%
2025

USGS MCS 2026 estimates 2025 mine production: Mexico 6,300 t, Peru 3,600 t, China 3,400 t of world 26,000 t; shares derived. Source: pubs.usgs.gov.

Step 3. The figures the price is set against

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

What it measuresFigureAs ofSource
Forecast 2026 silver market deficit (structural)
46.3 million ounces
Silver Institute / Metals Focus World Silver Survey 2026 release, 2026-04-15
silverinstitute.org
Industrial demand 2025 and share of total demand
657.4 Moz of about 1.13 Boz total (about 58%, derived) million ounces
2025 full year
silverinstitute.org

Step 4. What moves the price

  • Industrial demand: about 58% of 2025 demand (657.4 Moz); it fell 3% in 2025 after four years of growth and is forecast lower again in 2026. (silverinstitute.org)
  • Structural deficit: demand exceeded supply for a fifth straight year in 2025 and the deficit is forecast to widen to 46.3 Moz in 2026 with mine output flat. (silverinstitute.org)
  • Investor demand: coin and bar demand rose 14% in 2025, and the Silver Institute links record 2025 prices to investor interest and tight lease rates and regional liquidity. (silverinstitute.org)
  • Mine supply: world mine output rose 3% to 846.6 Moz in 2025; mining is concentrated in Mexico, Peru and China. (silverinstitute.org)

Step 5. How far the price has fallen from its own highs

+151.0%Change, 5 years
-37.9%Deepest fall
not yetMonths to recover
-35.2%Now vs highest month-end

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Silver changed by +151.0%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -37.9%, from Feb 2026 to Jul 2026 (5 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 35.2% below its highest month-end (Feb 2026).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 8 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Silver ranks 11 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was shallower than the median.

A second, independent series (iShares Silver Trust (SLV) closing prices, Nasdaq; month-end) gives a deepest fall of -38.4%, a gap of 0.5 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Step 6. How to get exposure

ProductStructureAnnual costSource
iShares Silver Trust
SLV, iShares Delaware Trust Sponsor LLC (BlackRock affiliate)
Physical silver bullion trust
0.50%
Sponsor fee per June 30, 2026 fact sheet
ishares.com
abrdn Silver ETF Trust
SIVR, abrdn ETFs Sponsor LLC
Physical silver trust
0.30%
Contractual fee 0.45%, voluntarily waived to 0.30% per March 31, 2026 10-Q; waiver can change
sec.gov

Futures roll. Not applicable to physical trusts: SLV holds silver bullion rather than futures, so there is no futures roll; contango and backwardation matter only for futures-based silver products. (ishares.com)

Silver is a much smaller and more volatile market than gold, and because over half of demand is industrial its price can fall with the economy even while investors buy.

What we could not verify

  • 2025 silver market deficit in Moz (Silver Institute pages opened state 'fifth consecutive deficit, narrowed' but no number; the table is an image)
  • Silver Institute Feb 2026 release forecast a 2026 deficit of 67 Moz, conflicting with the April 2026 survey figure of 46.3 Moz used here (the later figure is used)
  • Listed contract months for SI, and the 'SI' ticker root, not shown on any opened CME page (rulebook chapter 112 only); CME's silver contract-spec page returned no table; the 100-oz fact card (a different contract) was not used
  • Tick dollar value ($25) is derived from 5,000 oz x $0.005
  • Industrial share 58% is derived from 657.4 Moz / 1.13 Boz (rounded total)
  • SIVR 0.30% is a voluntary waiver of a 0.45% fee

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Sources

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.

All sources for this page (5)

Questions people ask

What moves the price of Silver?

Industrial demand: about 58% of 2025 demand (657.4 Moz); it fell 3% in 2025 after four years of growth and is forecast lower again in 2026.

How can I get exposure to Silver?

Through futures on CME Group (COMEX), or through funds and exchange-traded products. Step 6 lists the ones we verified, with structure and cost. Funds that hold futures can differ from the spot price.

Why can a fund differ from the price I see?

A fund that holds futures must sell contracts about to expire and buy later ones. When the later ones cost more (contango) each roll can cost money; when they cost less it can add. A fund that holds the physical metal has no roll but pays storage and fees.