Wheat (CBOT): Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

The EU is listed separately by USDA as a bloc at 145.14 Mt (17.2%), which would rank first if counted; the three above are single countries. Source: usda.gov.

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

• US crop size: USDA projects 2026/27 US wheat production of 1,534 mil bu versus 1,989 mil bu in 2025/26, and ending stocks of 740 vs 920 mil bu. (usda.gov)
• World supply: global wheat production is projected at 822.39 Mt in 2026/27 versus 844.06 Mt, and world ending stocks at 276.04 vs 281.55 Mt. (usda.gov)
• Large exporters' harvests (Russia, EU) and weather in producing regions move world prices because production is spread across several large countries. (usda.gov)
• Farm-level costs: ERS total costs listed for US wheat were $408.55 per planted acre in 2025, a reference point against the projected $6.30/bu farm price. (ers.usda.gov)

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Wheat (CBOT) changed by -12.6%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -53.4%, from May 2022 to Dec 2025 (43 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 37.9% below its highest month-end (May 2022).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 50 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Wheat (CBOT) ranks 5 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was deeper than the median.

A second, independent series (IMF wheat price, US hard red winter export, monthly average to Jul 2026 (via FRED); monthly average, to Jul 2026) gives a deepest fall of -65.1%, a gap of 9.7 points from ours, with the low point 1 month apart. The difference is mostly the benchmark: ours is Chicago soft red winter wheat futures, the second is US hard red winter wheat for export, monthly average. The two markets move together in time but not by the same amount, so read our depth as a statement about Chicago futures only.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Futures roll. In its prospectus, the sister Teucrium Corn Fund explains that in contango (near contracts cheaper than later ones) a fund rolling futures sells cheaper and buys dearer contracts, which can lower NAV and return; in backwardation the effect can help returns. Teucrium's wheat fund uses the same roll method (not separately checked). (teucrium.com)

Wheat futures-based funds hold several contract months and are exposed to roll costs and weather and policy shocks, so fund returns can differ materially from the spot wheat price.

• USDA-published stocks-to-use ratio (WASDE gives it only for cotton; the 39.8% is computed)
• ERS total cost per bushel (not published as a row; only per planted acre)
• Wheat roll-yield statement from Teucrium's own wheat prospectus (corn prospectus used)
• CME fact card lists wheat deliverable grades differently from the CBOT rulebook; rulebook used
• Producer ranking: country list taken from the USDA WASDE tables; confirm no country (e.g. Canada, Australia, Ukraine) was omitted

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.