ICE US coffee "C". The contract it trades on, who produces it, the figures its price is set against, how to get exposure, and how far its price fell from its highs in five years.
Verified figures, not advice. Contract terms, production, stocks and fund costs come from the exchange, government agencies and fund issuers named beside each figure, read on 14 Oct 2026. A figure we could not verify is shown as "not verified"; a figure we worked out ourselves is marked "computed". We do not say where a price is going or whether to buy. Commodity funds and futures can lose more than you expect. Found a mistake? Tell us and we correct it.
Source: ice.com. Read on 2026-10-14.
Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.
What it measuresFigureAs ofSource
World ending stocks (USDA forecast)
26.283 million 60-kg bags (second straight annual rise, still below long-term average per USDA) million 60-kg bags
2026/27 forecast, USDA FAS Coffee: World Markets and Trade, July 2026 edition (report dated 2 July 2026)
World stocks-to-use (calculated: ending stocks 26,283 / consumption 179,736 thousand bags)
14.6 percent (calculated by us, not stated by USDA)
2026/27 forecast, USDA July 2026
From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Coffee (arabica) changed by +42.5%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -38.9%, from Aug 2022 to Sep 2023 (13 months).
It then took 11 more months to get back to that earlier high.
At the end of Sep 2026 it was 29.7% below its highest month-end (Apr 2025).
Time spent more than 20% below its high: 23 of 60 months.
Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Coffee (arabica) ranks 10 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was shallower than the median.
A second, independent series (IMF coffee price, other milds, monthly average to Jul 2026 (via FRED); monthly average, to Jul 2026) gives a deepest fall of -34.4%, a gap of 3.8 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.
How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.
Futures roll. Futures-based funds must keep selling expiring contracts and buying later ones; when later contracts cost more (contango) each roll can erode the fund's return even if the spot price is flat, and in backwardation rolling can add to it (paraphrased from a sugar fund prospectus; same mechanism applies to every futures-based product). (teucrium.com)
Production is concentrated (Brazil and Vietnam together are over half of world output on USDA figures), so one frost or drought can move prices sharply.
A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?
Questions people ask
What moves the price of Coffee (arabica)?
Brazil weather is the main swing factor: Minas Gerais conditions are described as the primary indicator for world market conditions, and frost, heat or drought tend to hit yields together.
How can I get exposure to Coffee (arabica)?
Through futures on ICE Futures U.S., or through funds and exchange-traded products. Step 6 lists the ones we verified, with structure and cost. Funds that hold futures can differ from the spot price.
Why can a fund differ from the price I see?
A fund that holds futures must sell contracts about to expire and buy later ones. When the later ones cost more (contango) each roll can cost money; when they cost less it can add. So its return is not the spot price.