Copper: Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Source: pubs.usgs.gov.

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

• Tariff uncertainty on US copper imports was cited as the main reason COMEX copper was projected to average a record about $4.80/lb in 2025 (14% above 2024). (pubs.usgs.gov)
• Mine supply is concentrated: Chile, Congo (Kinshasa) and Peru together make about 49% of 2025e world output (computed), so disruptions, lower ore grades or shutdowns in a few places matter. (pubs.usgs.gov)
• The refined market has swung between small deficits and surpluses (2022 -579 kt, 2025 +463 kt, Jan-Jul 2026 +32 kt apparent balance), and small gaps relative to about 28,000 kt annual usage move sentiment. (icsg.org)
• Chinese bonded-warehouse stock changes are not officially reported, so ICSG adjusts its balance using consultants' estimates; the true balance is uncertain. (icsg.org)

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Copper changed by +49.8%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -28.1%, from Mar 2022 to Oct 2022 (7 months).

It then took 29 more months to get back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 0.5% below its highest month-end (Aug 2026).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 11 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Copper ranks 13 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was shallower than the median.

A second, independent series (IMF copper price, LME grade A, monthly average to Jul 2026 (via FRED); monthly average, to Jul 2026) gives a deepest fall of -26.3%, a gap of 1.2 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Futures roll. Per the fund sponsor's SEC annual report, CPER says contango and backwardation have affected its total return versus owning copper directly; contango means the nearest contract is priced below the next one, backwardation at or above it, and the index holds one contract in backwardation and three equally weighted contracts in contango. (sec.gov)

Copper prices swing with trade policy and the economic cycle, and futures-based funds such as CPER can lag spot copper because of roll costs and fees.

• CPER total expense ratio / management fee (USCF page fields blank; 10-K excerpt cut off before fee section)
• LME or COMEX warehouse stocks (LME stock reports and CME pages did not return figures)
• Typical mine cost (not searched to a primary source)
• LME copper contract spec not opened (COMEX HG used as benchmark)
• CME copper PDF brochure is undated; contract months should be re-checked against the live CME spec page (JS-rendered, not readable here)
• ICSG 2026-2027 forecast balance (press release PDF not readable; only the landing page opened)

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.