Sugar (No. 11): Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Source: ice.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Source: apps.fas.usda.gov.

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

• Weather: ISO says El Nino poses the strongest threat to its production forecasts, and any shortfall could quickly push the global balance into significant deficit. (isosugar.org)
• Brazil sugar-versus-ethanol mix: ISO's 2026/27 deficit estimate assumes higher prices push Brazil to favour sugar over ethanol, while Brazil's move to E32 petrol blending adds about 1 billion litres a year of ethanol demand. (isosugar.org)
• India policy and supply: domestic prices hit record highs, import permits were issued, and sugar diverted to ethanol was cut to 1m tonnes from 2.8m. (isosugar.org)
• Energy and trade routes: ISO cites high oil prices raising production costs and disruption of Persian Gulf sugar flows from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. (isosugar.org)

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Sugar (No. 11) changed by -8.5%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -48.1%, from Oct 2023 to May 2026 (31 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 34.9% below its highest month-end (Oct 2023).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 29 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Sugar (No. 11) ranks 8 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was shallower than the median.

A second, independent series (IMF sugar price, ISA daily price, monthly average to Jul 2026 (via FRED); monthly average, to Jul 2026) gives a deepest fall of -49.1%, a gap of 0.1 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Futures roll. When near-term sugar futures trade below later ones (contango), rolling sells cheaper contracts and buys pricier ones, which can significantly reduce a fund's return even without a price move if prolonged; in backwardation rolling can help (paraphrase of the CANE prospectus risk factor). (teucrium.com)

Sugar prices are heavily shaped by government policy (ethanol mandates, export and import rules) and by the Brazil/India monsoon and crop cycles, so supply can swing quickly.

• Producer shares are a 2026/27 USDA forecast (May 2026), not a completed crop year; a 2025/26 USDA split was not opened. The PDF read at apps.fas.usda.gov was labelled May 2026 edition.
• ISO stock-to-use ratio: May 2026 outlook gave 44.15% (revised ISO method, 2025/26), but the August 2026 page gave no ratio; not included because it is superseded.
• USDA stocks-to-use for sugar is our calculation (ending stocks / human consumption), not a figure USDA states; ISO and USDA use different methodologies.
• TER for CANE: three different numbers appear in Teucrium documents (net 0.54%, gross 3.56%, prospectus risk text ~2.48%); site should state the basis.

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.