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Gold: Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

Store of value and jewellery. The contract it trades on, who produces it, the figures its price is set against, how to get exposure, and how far its price fell from its highs in five years.

Verified figures, not advice. Contract terms, production, stocks and fund costs come from the exchange, government agencies and fund issuers named beside each figure, read on 14 Oct 2026. A figure we could not verify is shown as "not verified"; a figure we worked out ourselves is marked "computed". We do not say where a price is going or whether to buy. Commodity funds and futures can lose more than you expect. Found a mistake? Tell us and we correct it.

Step 1. The contract

TermValue
Exchange
CME Group (COMEX)
Contract
Gold Futures
Ticker
GC
Size
100 troy ounces
Smallest price move
$0.10 per troy ounce (= $10 per contract)
Delivery months
Current month and next two months; Feb, Apr, Aug, Oct within 23 months; Jun and Dec within 72 months; physical delivery
Benchmark grade
Gold bars of at least 995 fineness from an Exchange-approved brand

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Step 2. Who produces it

ProducerShare of world outputYear or season
China
11.5%
2025
Russia
9.4%
2025
Australia
8.5%
2025

USGS MCS 2026 estimates 2025 mine production: China 380 t, Russia 310 t, Australia 280 t of world 3,300 t; shares derived and rounded to 0.1. Source: pubs.usgs.gov.

Step 3. The figures the price is set against

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

What it measuresFigureAs ofSource
Average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of gold miners
1,785 US$ per ounce
Q1 2026 (WGC article 2026-08-24; average AISC margin 3,076 US$/oz)
gold.org
Central bank net gold purchases
288.9 in Q2 2026; 345 in H1 2026 tonnes
WGC Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, published 2026-07-30
gold.org

Step 4. What moves the price

  • Central bank buying: net purchases were 288.9 t in Q2 2026, up 62% year on year, and 45% of surveyed central banks plan to raise reserves over 12 months. (gold.org)
  • Investment flows: gold ETFs saw 45 t of outflows in Q2 2026 while bar and coin demand was up 21% in H1; investor flows can move price both ways. (gold.org)
  • Rates and the dollar: in July 2026 rising yields weighed on gold while a weaker US dollar partly offset it, leaving the month flat near US$4,027/oz. (gold.org)
  • Price-sensitive jewellery and supply: jewellery volumes fell 17% in Q2 2026 at high prices; mine output rose about 2% to 966 t and recycling fell 6%. (gold.org)

Step 5. How far the price has fallen from its own highs

+134.7%Change, 5 years
-23.0%Deepest fall
not yetMonths to recover
-20.2%Now vs highest month-end

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Gold changed by +134.7%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -23.0%, from Feb 2026 to Jun 2026 (4 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 20.2% below its highest month-end (Feb 2026).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 3 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Gold ranks 14 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was shallower than the median.

A second, independent series (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) closing prices, Nasdaq; month-end) gives a deepest fall of -23.8%, a gap of 0.8 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Step 6. How to get exposure

ProductStructureAnnual costSource
SPDR Gold Shares
GLD, World Gold Trust Services, LLC (sponsor)
Physical gold trust
0.40%
Gross expense ratio per SSGA fund page, as of 2026-10-14
ssga.com
iShares Gold Trust
IAU, iShares Delaware Trust Sponsor LLC (BlackRock affiliate)
Physical gold bullion trust
0.25%
Sponsor fee per June 30, 2026 fact sheet
ishares.com

Futures roll. Not applicable to physical trusts: IAU holds gold bullion rather than futures, so there is no futures roll; roll yield and contango matter only for futures-based gold products. (ishares.com)

A gold futures price is not the same as owning the metal: futures are margined, expire, and can settle by delivery, while physical funds charge an ongoing fee and track spot rather than futures prices.

What we could not verify

  • CME gold contract-spec page returned no table; spec figures come from the CME gold fact card PDF (tick dollar value is stated there as $10) and COMEX rulebook chapter 113 (995 fineness)
  • Producer shares are derived from USGS tonnages (2025 estimates), not published percentages
  • GLD 0.40% is the SSGA page 'gross expense ratio'; the older GLD key info PDF opened was from 2011 and not used
  • AISC is quarterly (Q1 2026); no later quarter found

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Sources

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.

All sources for this page (8)

Questions people ask

What moves the price of Gold?

Central bank buying: net purchases were 288.9 t in Q2 2026, up 62% year on year, and 45% of surveyed central banks plan to raise reserves over 12 months.

How can I get exposure to Gold?

Through futures on CME Group (COMEX), or through funds and exchange-traded products. Step 6 lists the ones we verified, with structure and cost. Funds that hold futures can differ from the spot price.

Why can a fund differ from the price I see?

A fund that holds futures must sell contracts about to expire and buy later ones. When the later ones cost more (contango) each roll can cost money; when they cost less it can add. A fund that holds the physical metal has no roll but pays storage and fees.