Trading Education Platform SystemSubscribe for FreeSupport
Commodities / Natural gas (Henry Hub)

Natural gas (Henry Hub): Contract, Supply and Price Drawdown

US gas, heating and power. The contract it trades on, who produces it, the figures its price is set against, how to get exposure, and how far its price fell from its highs in five years.

Verified figures, not advice. Contract terms, production, stocks and fund costs come from the exchange, government agencies and fund issuers named beside each figure, read on 14 Oct 2026. A figure we could not verify is shown as "not verified"; a figure we worked out ourselves is marked "computed". We do not say where a price is going or whether to buy. Commodity funds and futures can lose more than you expect. Found a mistake? Tell us and we correct it.

Step 1. The contract

TermValue
Exchange
CME Group (NYMEX)
Contract
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures
Ticker
NG
Size
10,000 mmBtu
Smallest price move
$0.001 per mmBtu (= $10 per contract; dollar value derived)
Delivery months
Monthly contracts listed from the current year out to 12 years ahead; physical delivery
Benchmark grade
Pipeline-quality gas meeting the Sabine Pipe Line Co. FERC tariff specs at Henry Hub

Source: cmegroup.com. Read on 2026-10-14.

Step 2. Who produces it

ProducerShare of world outputYear or season
United States
not verified
2025
Russia
not verified
2025
Iran
not verified
2025

Source: rigzone.com.

Step 3. The figures the price is set against

Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.

What it measuresFigureAs ofSource
Lower 48 working gas in underground storage
3,500 Bcf
week ending 2026-10-02
eia.gov
EIA projected end-October 2026 storage
3,850 (about 2% above the five-year average) Bcf
STEO released 2026-10-06
eia.gov

Step 4. What moves the price

  • Storage relative to normal: EIA expects inventories to stay above the five-year average, which limits upward price pressure. (eia.gov)
  • Supply versus demand: record production growth offsets rising LNG exports and domestic demand. (eia.gov)
  • Weather shocks: Henry Hub averaged $7.72/MMBtu in January 2026 during winter storm Fern; EIA treats this as a one-off behind the forecast 2027 price fall to $3.16/MMBtu. (eia.gov)
  • Exports: US LNG exports are projected to grow from about 15 Bcf/d in 2025 to over 30 Bcf/d by 2050 in most EIA cases, tying US prices more to global demand. (eia.gov)

Step 5. How far the price has fallen from its own highs

-44.2%Change, 5 years
-80.7%Deepest fall
not yetMonths to recover
-66.8%Now vs highest month-end

From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Natural gas (Henry Hub) changed by -44.2%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -80.7%, from Aug 2022 to Mar 2024 (19 months).

It has not climbed back to that earlier high.

At the end of Sep 2026 it was 66.8% below its highest month-end (Aug 2022).

Time spent more than 20% below its high: 51 of 60 months.

Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Natural gas (Henry Hub) ranks 1 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was deeper than the median.

A second, independent series (US EIA spot price, Henry Hub (via FRED); month-end) gives a deepest fall of -82.8%, a gap of 2.1 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.

How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.

Step 6. How to get exposure

ProductStructureAnnual costSource
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP
UNG, United States Commodity Funds LLC (general partner)
Futures-based commodity pool (near-month Henry Hub futures)
1.17%
Total annual fund operating expenses; management fee 0.60% up to $1bn of net assets, 0.50% above
sec.gov
WisdomTree Natural Gas
NGAS (USD, LSE); NGSP (GBP), WisdomTree Commodity Securities Limited (Jersey)
Exchange traded commodity (debt security); synthetic via fully funded collateralised swap
0.49%
Management fee; separate swap rate 0.45%
wisdomtree.com

Futures roll. UNG's prospectus says a prolonged period of contango could significantly hurt its NAV and total return, and that contango and backwardation can make its return differ greatly from the spot gas price. (sec.gov)

Natural gas futures can swing sharply with weather and storage reports, and futures-based funds such as UNG can lose value over time through contango even if spot prices are flat.

What we could not verify

  • Top-3 producer shares left null: only a secondary source (Rigzone citing the Energy Institute Statistical Review, 2 Jul 2026) was opened. Reported there for 2025: US 1,073.7 bcm (25.6%), Russia 609.4 bcm (14.5%), Iran 264.8 bcm (6.3%), world 4,196.5 bcm. Energy Institute and EIA primary pages did not load these figures
  • Storage vs five-year average and year ago for 2026-10-02: only secondary sources (Oil & Gas 360, IndexBox citing EIA, report of 8 Oct 2026) gave 5-yr avg 3,432 Bcf (+2.0%) and year-ago 3,630 Bcf (-3.6%); the EIA report pages fetched were stale caches
  • The CME contract-spec table was not directly opened; terms are from CME's Japanese-language NG product page; delivery point named there is via Sabine Pipe Line tariff, Henry Hub location not stated on the page
  • UNG total expense 1.17% excludes brokerage commissions; 'Other fund expenses' 0.57%
  • WisdomTree NGAS page has no contango wording

A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?

Sources

Figures read on 14 Oct 2026 from the pages below. Price history is our own calculation from two public sources.

All sources for this page (7)

Questions people ask

What moves the price of Natural gas (Henry Hub)?

Storage relative to normal: EIA expects inventories to stay above the five-year average, which limits upward price pressure.

How can I get exposure to Natural gas (Henry Hub)?

Through futures on CME Group (NYMEX), or through funds and exchange-traded products. Step 6 lists the ones we verified, with structure and cost. Funds that hold futures can differ from the spot price.

Why can a fund differ from the price I see?

A fund that holds futures must sell contracts about to expire and buy later ones. When the later ones cost more (contango) each roll can cost money; when they cost less it can add. So its return is not the spot price.