Fibre for textiles. The contract it trades on, who produces it, the figures its price is set against, how to get exposure, and how far its price fell from its highs in five years.
Verified figures, not advice. Contract terms, production, stocks and fund costs come from the exchange, government agencies and fund issuers named beside each figure, read on 14 Oct 2026. A figure we could not verify is shown as "not verified"; a figure we worked out ourselves is marked "computed". We do not say where a price is going or whether to buy. Commodity funds and futures can lose more than you expect. Found a mistake? Tell us and we correct it.
Source: ice.com. Read on 2026-10-14.
Price alone does not say whether a commodity is dear or cheap. Stocks, balances and costs show how tight or loose the market is. We list them as published, with the date.
What it measuresFigureAs ofSource
World ending stocks, 2026/27 projection (October WASDE)
70.68 million 480-lb bales (2025/26 estimate: 75.70)
USDA WASDE, October 2026 (exact day not shown in text read)
World stocks-to-use 2026/27 (calculated: 70.68 / 123.08 use)
57.4 percent (calculated by us, not stated in the report)
USDA WASDE, October 2026
From Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 the front-month futures price of Cotton (No. 2) changed by -34.9%. The path matters as much as that end result: the deepest fall below a previous high was -58.7%, from Apr 2022 to Nov 2025 (43 months).
It has not climbed back to that earlier high.
At the end of Sep 2026 it was 50.9% below its highest month-end (Apr 2022).
Time spent more than 20% below its high: 52 of 60 months.
Among the 14 commodities with a chart here, the median deepest fall was -49.0%. Cotton (No. 2) ranks 3 of 14 from deepest, so its fall was deeper than the median.
A second, independent series (IMF cotton price, Cotlook A index, monthly average to Jul 2026 (via FRED); monthly average, to Jul 2026) gives a deepest fall of -54.9%, a gap of 2.4 points from ours, with the low point 0 months apart. We take the two as agreeing.
How we made this: month-end settlement prices of the front-month futures contract from Yahoo Finance, read on 14 October 2026, checked against a second source as described above. A front-month series jumps when the contract changes, so it is not the return of any fund. The figures and the chart are our own calculation; we do not republish the raw prices.
Futures roll. Futures-based funds must keep selling expiring contracts and buying later ones; when later contracts cost more (contango) each roll can erode the fund's return even if the spot price is flat, and in backwardation rolling can add to it (paraphrased from a sugar fund prospectus; same mechanism applies to every futures-based product). (teucrium.com)
Cotton competes with polyester and other man-made fibres and the ICE contract delivers only US-growth cotton, so futures prices may not track cotton in other regions.
A price move says what buyers paid, not what the commodity is worth. For what we mean by value, see What is value?
Questions people ask
What moves the price of Cotton (No. 2)?
Supply changes: the October WASDE projects 2026/27 world output at 117.95 million bales, down from 122.05 million, with falls in China (33.5 vs 35.8) and Australia (3.0 vs 4.5).
How can I get exposure to Cotton (No. 2)?
Through futures on ICE Futures U.S., or through funds and exchange-traded products. Step 6 lists the ones we verified, with structure and cost. Funds that hold futures can differ from the spot price.
Why can a fund differ from the price I see?
A fund that holds futures must sell contracts about to expire and buy later ones. When the later ones cost more (contango) each roll can cost money; when they cost less it can add. So its return is not the spot price.